Environment and prediction it is of great importance in human life and one of the most important pillars of Environmental prediction, is the preservation of species (plants and animal) available in the nature. Capra aegagrus species is as the most prominent mammal mountain regions of Iran because of lack of knowledge biological and ecological features distraction it's habitats by humans and immethodical species by hunters, unfortunately faced with delining population and in the IUCN list is one vul vulnerable specious. The distribution of this species this is from Europa and Asia minor to Central Asia and Middle East. The aim of this research, Capra aegagrus habitat suitability modelling in Kolah Ghazy National Park in the winter and summer summer seasons and is mapping them. Various methods have been developed a species habitat suitability modelling that in this study is used from there Bayesian believe network.The Bayesian believe networks are kind of graphical model that accommodate the probabilistic relationships of variable and merge the various sources of information together. According to this one that habitat suitability modelling requires a comprehensive understanding of species ecology and it's interaction with various Environmental factors, so, in this study after identify the factors and variables, is used of them to draw a chart that shows casual structure and relationship between the most important variables affecting on the species. So by import possibilities from opinion experts, this influence diagram has become to a primary Bayesian model function the mother tested through sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis results showed that the most important parameters affecting on the species in the winter and summer season respectively or density of vegetation, status of water resources and wind.The accuracy of the model was evaluated by the presence or absence points of species in the winter and Summer seasons And the results acceptable and reasonable were obtained. After providing the habitat suitability model, the final habitat suitability maps by use of there model and mapping GIS was prepared for two chapter.
