Climate change through its negative impacts on the distribution of many species has become a major concern for conservation and biodiversity management programs worldwide. Iran is also a semi-arid country that has undergone climate change over the past years and has lost a lot of its water resources, due to this changes, many species have not been protected and have changed in terms of abundance of populations and in terms of the suitability of the habitat. Mountainous area has a large proportion of the biodiversity of the world. In mountainous environments, species migrate altogether seasonally and monthly in response to a changing environment. Mountain species are particularly vulnerable to the climate change. The purpose of this study was to modeling the effects of climate change on the suitability of the wild goat habitat ( Capra aegagrus ) in Dena biosphere reserve in Kohgiluye and boyer-Ahmad province as a management plan in the face of climate change. Ecological modeling of species is one of the methods of climate change impacts monitoring. In this study, modeling the habitat suitability and predicting climate change in the MaxEnt model have been used for studying the impacts of climate change on geographic distribution of wild goats. For this purpose, the climatic and topographic parameters were used in ArcMap 10.4, MIROC5 model and climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5, SDMs) and programming software. In the first stage, modeling of species distribution and habitat suitability based on environmental parameters, selected climatic data in present time and presence species in Dena biosphere reserve was carried out and then climate change in the two scenarios for the next decades in 2050 was predicted. The models performed well with area under the curve scores above 0.94, which shows the high efficiency and precision of the model in predicting presence of this species in Dena biosphere reserve. In the suitability of habitat wild goat, we found the most important environmental predictor variables including: the distance from rocks, slope, mean temperature of wettest quarter of year, distance from the Astragalus Daphnae, and Gundelia-Cousnia vegetation covers, precipitation of warmest quarter of year, precipitation seasonality
